最近这几天，上海按摩店一片欣欣向荣，原因是挤满了“跑断腿”的媒体老师。
4月23日，上海车展开幕，雷科技旗下电车通派出专业报道团，远赴千里之外的上海，近距离观察这场汽车与科技的盛宴。作为今年国内第一个A级车展，也是亚洲规模最大的车展，开展当天，硝烟弥漫，发布会接踵而至，电车通团队人均10个活动邀请，不是在参加发布会，就是在去发布会的路上。
不过，并不是所有车企品牌都能对这氛围感同身受。在热闹背后，有14家以上车企品牌消失在视野中。据了解，本届上海车展包括兰博基尼、玛莎拉蒂、劳斯莱斯、北京现代、悦达起亚、捷尼赛思、极星、雪佛兰、斯巴鲁、斯柯达、哪吒汽车、捷达、东风雪铁龙/标致、捷豹路虎等车企缺席。
从名单来看，可以简单分类为韩系车、法系车及传统豪华品牌。变革浪潮向前，从上海车展的展位变迁，或可以窥见汽车市场的变局。
韩系、法系车集体退场
先说说韩系车，这是韩系品牌自2002年进入中国市场以来，第一次从A级车展的参展名单中消失。
曾几何时，韩系车在中国市场不乏高光时刻。北京现代曾凭借高性价比、节油等优势获得一定的市场份额。
2023上海车展，北京现代展台
（图源：北京现代官方）
不过，随着新能源汽车崛起，以燃油车为主打的北京现代在中国市场承压。2017年，北京现代在华销量同比下降超三成，跌破80万辆；此后至2022年，北京现代录得销量六连跌。如今、现代和起亚的全年销量甚至还不如比亚迪几周的业绩。
关于原因也已经有过很多分析：品牌定位的固化、技术双标、电动化转型的滞后，地缘事件的长尾效应等等，然而更重要的是，当大众、丰田、这些大厂都开始积极用彻头彻尾的中国化电动新车，明确表明自己立场的时候，人们对韩系品牌的印象还停留在当年起亚中国首席运营官杨洪海的“等中国车企烧死了再抢市场”言论，以及北京现代不断出售旗下工厂的行为上。
法系车也是同样的原因，市场销量持续低迷，存在感骤降；新能源转型滞后，错失技术赛道；产品策略与中国市场需求脱节，可以说是“摸着韩系车过河”了，可惜这条河通往何处尚且未知。
2023上海车展，雪铁龙展台
（图源：雪铁龙官方）
总的来说，韩法车系的退场，既非偶然的战术失误，也非简单的“成本考量”，而是一场由技术路线、产业链掌控力和用户认知差共同驱动的必然。
正如20多年前它们在中国市场快意驰骋的成功秘诀一样，今天它们的撤退，无非是重走了当年那些败退者所碾下的车辙而已。
当然，如果就此认为韩法系车在中国市场是执迷不悟，冥顽不灵，也有失偏颇。
与大众、丰田等车企积极参与到中国市场竞争中的策略有所不同，市占率已经降至微不足道的韩系车，其实已经没有必要选择孤注一掷式的冒险式转型，而是奉行先活着，再图发展的策略。
韩系车能在全球成功证明其并非“技术弱者”，但把有限的金钱花在刀刃上，让自己相对健康的留在这个市场，以时间换发展空间，未来才有可能。从这个角度上讲，韩系车的缺席还真不一定只是销量原因，当参不参加上海车展已经不再重要，退出车展也不失为一个理性的选择。
超豪华品牌缺席，销量下滑并不是根本原因
除了韩系车与法系车外，以往车展的销量担当——传统超豪华品牌转向低调，与上一届上海车展对比，兰博基尼、玛莎拉蒂、劳斯莱斯等超豪华品牌均缺席此次车展，只剩宾利“独守空房”。
原因是什么？在小红书、百度、DeepSeek等渠道搜索，得出大部分的答案是“销量下滑”。
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