越南网友在海外网站提问：作为中国人，与其他东南亚国家比，您看好越南未来吗？看来他们还是很在乎中国人的看法的，很多网友积极提出他们的见解。
问题
There is no need to compare with other Asian countries. I firmly believe that Vietnam has a very bright future.
不必与其他亚洲国家相比，我坚信越南有着十分光明的未来。
I've long heard people say that Vietnam is like China in the early 21st century, full of vitality, vigor, with opportunities everywhere and young people full of ambition.
我早就听闻人们说越南就如同21世纪初的中国，充满活力、朝气蓬勃，到处都是机遇，还有满怀抱负的年轻人。
Last week, when I was taking an Executive Master of Business Administration (EMBA) course at the China Europe International Business School (one of the most prestigious business schools in China), the professor said that there are two countries that we Chinese should really pay attention to, namely India and Vietnam. Because no matter how big the gap between them and China may seem now, they share two important characteristics with China: a large population and a high emphasis on education, and these two characteristics are the most important indicators of future success. In addition, in terms of population structure, both India and Vietnam are much "younger" than China at present.
上周，我在中欧国际工商学院（中国最负盛名的商学院之一）参加高级管理人员工商管理硕士（EMBA）课程时，教授说有两个国家是我们中国人真正应该关注的，那就是印度和越南。因为不管它们现在看起来与中国的差距有多大，它们都与中国有两个重要的共同特征：庞大的人口以及对教育的高度重视，而这两个特征是未来成功的最重要指标。此外，从人口结构来看，印度和越南都比当下的中国 “年轻” 得多。
So I believe that it's only a matter of time before Vietnam achieves true prosperity and becomes a middle - or high - income economy. Moreover, Vietnam has also benefited a great deal from the ongoing China - US trade war.
所以我相信，越南走向真正繁荣并成为中等或高收入经济体只是时间问题。而且，越南还从持续的中美贸易战中获益匪浅。
If there is a trap that Vietnam needs to avoid in the future, it is not to regard real estate as one of the pillar industries. The housing prices first - and second - tier cities are already outrageously high, which seriously damages the competitiveness of the regions and dampens the morale of young people in the cities.
如果说越南未来有一个需要避免的陷阱，那就是不要将房地产作为支柱产业之一。一二线城市的房价已经高得离谱，这严重损害了地区的竞争力，也打击了城市年轻人的士气。
As a Chinese, I would like to say that Vietnam has a very bright future.
作为一名中国人，我想说越南有着非常光明的未来。
Vietnam has a population of 100 million, a good level of education. Compared with other countries with similar GDP, it has a higher living standard, and its people are hard - working. Most importantly, compared with other neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has a stable political environment.
越南拥有一亿人口，教育水平良好，与国内生产总值相近的其他国家相比，生活水平更高，民众勤劳肯干。最重要的是，与东南亚其他邻国相比，越南有着稳定的政治环境。
Vietnam will take over the basic light - industry system from China, profit from its low - cost labor force, and at the same time develop its own industrial system.
越南将承接来自中国的基础轻工业体系，利用其廉价劳动力成本获利，同时发展自身的工业体系。
The problems currently faced by Vietnam are:
越南目前面临的问题是：
1. It is overly dependent on foreign investment, so most of the profits are earned by foreign companies. In the past decade, the Vietnamese economy has grown rapidly, but its per capita GDP and wage levels are still low. Ordinary people have not benefited much from the economic development.
1. 过度依赖外国投资，因此大部分利润被外国公司赚取。在过去十年里，越南经济快速增长，但其人均国内生产总值和薪资水平仍然较低。普通民众并未从经济发展中获得太多实惠。
2. Vietnam lacks its own unique technological advantages. The goal of industrialization is to find its own unique advantages in global market competition. China has made efforts in the Internet field, South Korea is good at mobile phones and shipbuilding, and Japan excels in robotics, environment, and energy. Vietnam has not yet formed its own core competitive advantages, as most of the technologies it needs are in the hands of foreign companies.
2. 越南缺乏自身独特的技术优势。工业化的目标是在全球市场竞争中找到自己独特的优势。中国在互联网领域发力，韩国擅长手机和造船业，日本则在机器人、环境和能源方面表现出色。越南仍未形成自己的核心竞争优势，因为其所需的大部分技术都掌握在外国公司手中。
3. Its relationship with China. China can provide Vietnam with a huge market and technical support. However, due to historical issues, Vietnam will never fully trust China. Cooperation between the two countries is still accompanied by competition.
3. 与中国的关系。中国可以为越南提供巨大的市场和技术支持。但由于历史问题，越南永远不会完全信任中国。两国之间的合作仍伴随着竞争。
But overall, I think Vietnam still has great development opportunities in Southeast Asia. I hope that Vietnam can eventually replace South Korea and become the third developed economy in East Asia. This is feasible because Vietnam has a population twice that of South Korea, a larger territory, much richer natural resources, and a more favorable international geographical location (South Korea faces huge pressure from North Korea, while Vietnam, although seeing China as a big one, can still cooperate with China).
但总体而言，我认为越南在东南亚地区仍有很大的发展机会。我希望越南最终能够取代韩国，成为东亚第三个发达经济体。这是可行的，因为越南人口是韩国的两倍，领土面积更大，自然资源丰富得多，国际地理位置也更优越（韩国面临来自北方的巨大压力，而越南虽然和中国有历史问题，但仍能够与中国合作）。
Compared with Vietnam, other Southeast Asian countries are not even a threat...
与越南相比，其他东南亚国家甚至都算不上威胁……
Indonesia has a large territory, but it is too fragmented, and the government cannot effectively control the whole country.
印度尼西亚国土面积大，但过于分散，政府无法有力地管控整个国家。
The Philippines faces the same problem. Due to the weak government, the whole country is threatened by insurgency and corruption.
菲律宾也面临同样的问题，由于政府软弱，整个国家受到叛乱和腐败问题的威胁。
Singapore has developed well, but the country is too small and its influence is limited.
新加坡发展得不错，但国家太小，影响力有限。
Malaysia? Hahaha.
马来西亚？哈哈哈哈哈哈。
Thailand lacks the impetus for industrial upgrading, and there are serious domestic political conflicts in Thailand every two years, which makes the development environment of the country not good.
泰国缺乏产业升级的动力，而且泰国每两年就会出现严重的国内政治冲突，这使得该国的发展环境不佳。
Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar: countries with no hope.
柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸：毫无希望的国家。
需要说明的是，以上网友评论内容中对部分国家带有一些片面观点和不恰当的表述，每个国家都有其独特的发展历程、优势和挑战，都在为自身发展做出积极努力，应秉持客观、全面和尊重的态度看待不同国家的发展。
Conclusion first: Vietnam has a very promising future. It has now become another "Asian Tiger". In the future, Vietnam's per capita GDP will exceed that of Thailand, but it will be difficult to overtake Malaysia because Malaysia has more advantages in terms of geography and resources.
先给出结论：越南有着十分美好的未来。如今它已成为又一只 “亚洲小虎”。未来，越南的人均国内生产总值（GDP）将超过泰国，但很难赶超马来西亚，因为马来西亚在地理和资源方面更具优势。
Per capita GDP in 1990 (data from the International Monetary Fund, in US dollars):
1990年人均GDP（国际货币基金组织数据，单位：美元）：
- Malaysia: $2,417
- 马来西亚：2417美元
- Thailand: $1,508
- 泰国：1508美元
- Philippines: $797
- 菲律宾：797美元
- Indonesia: $641
- 印度尼西亚：641美元
- Vietnam: $96
- 越南：96美元
Per capita GDP in 2015:
2015年人均GDP：
- Malaysia: $9,667
- 马来西亚：9667美元
- Thailand: $5,742
- 泰国：5742美元
- Indonesia: $3,362
- 印度尼西亚：3362美元
- Philippines: $2,858
- 菲律宾：2858美元
- Vietnam: $2,088
- 越南：2088美元
As time goes by, Vietnam's GDP is getting closer and closer to that of the Philippines. By 2030, it may exceed that of the Philippines and Indonesia.
随着时间的推移，越南的GDP越来越接近菲律宾。到2030年，它可能会超过菲律宾和印度尼西亚。
Vietnam ranked first in GDP growth rate in 2015:
2015年越南GDP增长率排名第一：
- Vietnam: 6.68%
- 越南：6.68%
- Philippines: 5.9%
- 菲律宾：5.9%
- Malaysia: 5%
- 马来西亚：5%
- Indonesia: 4.79%
- 印度尼西亚：4.79%
- Thailand: 3.5%
- 泰国：3.5%
Vietnam is more closely related to Chinese culture. After World War II, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong (China), Taiwan (China), and Japan respectively created economic miracles and entered the ranks of developed economies. The Vietnamese people are very intelligent, hard - working, and innovative. As long as Vietnam maintains social stability at home and a peaceful environment with its neighbors externally, it will continue to develop rapidly and steadily.
越南与中华文化更为接近。二战后，韩国、新加坡、中国香港、中国台湾以及日本分别创造了经济奇迹，并迈入发达经济体行列。越南人非常聪慧、勤劳且富有创新精神。只要越南在国内保持社会稳定，在外部与邻国维持和平环境，就将继续快速且平稳地发展。
Wish Vietnam success in its political reform and the realization of democracy. Vietnam deserves a bright future.
祝愿越南成功完成政治改革并实现民主。越南理应拥有光明的未来。
I'm Chinese, and I've been to all the countries in Southeast Asia!
我是中国人，东南亚所有国家我都去过！
Personally, I think Vietnam has the potential to become the largest economy in Southeast Asia.
就我个人而言，我认为越南有潜力成为东南亚最大的经济体。
The Vietnamese people are hard - working, especially Vietnamese women. They attach great importance to education and savings.
越南人很勤劳，尤其是越南女性，她们重视教育和储蓄。
These basic qualities enable Vietnam to develop faster than other Southeast Asian countries.
这些基本特质使得越南能够比其他东南亚国家发展得更快。
However, there are also some unstable factors in Vietnam.
不过，越南也存在一些不稳定因素。
First, can Vietnam's political system remain stable in the long term?
第一，越南的政治体制能否长期保持稳定？
Vietnam has relatively weak national strength and a low ability to resist external shocks. Therefore, it is likely to be impacted by a "color revolution".
越南国力相对较弱，抵御外部冲击的能力较低，因此很可能受到 西方“颜色革命” 的冲击。
Vietnam is likely to be subverted by a "color revolution" when it is still very poor.
越南很可能在还非常贫穷的时候就被 “颜色革命” 颠覆。
The contradictions between the north and the south, between the rich and the poor, and between urban and rural areas in Vietnam have always been quite intense. The Internet - based society is an excellent condition for promoting a "color revolution".
越南南北之间、贫富之间以及城乡之间的矛盾一直相当激烈。互联网社会是推动 “颜色革命” 的绝佳条件。
Second, Vietnam's economy is relatively fragile, driven by foreign investment and with a high proportion of foreign debt.
第二，越南经济较为脆弱，受外国投资驱动且外债占比高。
Can Vietnam's economy withstand a shock similar to the Asian financial crisis?
越南经济能否承受类似亚洲金融危机那样的冲击呢？
Vietnam is also highly likely to become the next target to be harvested.
越南也极有可能成为下一波被收割的对象。
Vietnam must stay vigilant!
越南必须保持警惕！
Vietnam and China share a great deal in culture, which is reflected in aspects such as being hard - working, attaching importance to education, and valuing family.
越南与中国在文化上有很大一部分是相通的，这体现在勤劳努力、重视教育、重视家庭等方面。
Therefore, I have no doubt that Vietnam has a bright future.
所以，我毫不怀疑越南有着光明的未来。
Well, I would like to further elaborate on how Vietnam can have an extremely promising future.
嗯，我想进一步阐述越南如何拥有极为光明的未来。
I think Vietnam should align its political and economic interests with those of China. It should develop into an economic collaborative partner of China rather than a competitor. Especially during the trade war, many people said that Vietnam might benefit a great deal from the trade war, but I don't think so.
我认为越南应使自身的政治利益和经济利益与中国保持一致。要发展成为中国经济上的协同伙伴，而非竞争对手。尤其是在贸易战期间，很多人说越南可能会在贸易战中获益颇丰，我却不这么认为。
Due to its limited scale, Vietnam cannot replace China.
越南因自身规模所限，无法取代中国。
Although efficiency can be improved, the scale is difficult to change. A population of 90 million can master many fields, but it's impossible to cover all fields. Just because of the scale issue, Vietnam won't become the world's factory.
尽管效率可以提升，但规模难以改变。九千万人口能够掌握众多领域，但不可能涵盖所有领域。仅仅因为规模问题，越南不会成为世界工厂。
The problem is that to be competitive, scale is needed. But once a certain scale is reached in some fields, due to limited manpower, the degree of industrial diversification will decrease. And when the degree of diversification decreases, facing large - scale purchasers, Vietnam will lose its bargaining power because a single tariff adjustment by the other party can shake a large part of Vietnam's GDP. The reason why the US can't have much impact on China is China's scale.
问题在于，要具备竞争力就需要规模，但一旦在某些领域达到一定规模，由于人力有限，产业多元化程度就会降低。而当多元化程度降低时，面对大型采购商，越南就会失去议价能力，因为对方的一次关税调整就能撼动越南很大一部分国内生产总值。美国难以对中国产生太大影响，就是因为中国的规模。
Regardless of what changes have occurred in Vietnam due to the trade war currently, there is a risk that if Sino - US relations ease again, the changes that have taken place may be reversed.
无论越南因贸易战目前发生了何种变化，都存在一种风险，即如果中美关系再度缓和，已经发生的改变可能会被逆转。
The key to Vietnam's future economic development lies in its ability to stand firm in the economic storm. To be honest, not many countries can do this. China can, the US can, the EU can, but a single European country can't.
越南未来经济发展的关键在于在经济风暴中屹立不倒的能力。说实话，没多少国家能做到这一点。中国可以，美国可以，欧盟可以，但欧洲的单个国家不行。
To achieve this goal, Vietnam needs to establish an interdependent relationship with China. When some key industries in Vietnam get into trouble, China should feel obliged to provide support, and China should feel that if it doesn't support, a chain reaction will affect itself.
为实现这一目标，越南需要与中国建立相互依存的关系。当越南的一些关键产业陷入困境时，要让中国觉得有理由提供支持，让中国觉得如果不支持，连锁反应将会波及自身。
China's 1.4 billion population should be made into a stable customer group for some Vietnamese products.
要让中国的14亿人口成为部分越南产品的稳定客户群体。
Competitiveness may be useful, but this is not purely a market issue. Politics also plays a role.
竞争力或许有用，但这并非纯粹的市场问题，政治也发挥着作用。
I don't know much about other South Asian countries, but I believe Vietnam has a closer connection with China in terms of potential than those countries, and this is a good thing.
我对其他南亚国家了解不多，但我相信越南与中国在潜力上有着比那些国家更为紧密的联系，这是件好事。
